Soros Fund Made Intel Its Top Stock Bet. Then Intel Halved.

Soros Fund Management reported 2,830,000 Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) shares on September 30 — a stake of $340,250,900 and its largest common-stock position. Intel closed at $59.66 on Friday, November 13, down 50.4% from its September 30 close of $120.23. The position, if fully retained, has shed roughly $171 million in value.

The fund, run by CEO and chief investment officer Dawn Fitzpatrick, filed its third-quarter 13F (the quarterly list of U.S. stock holdings that large managers must disclose) at 4:05 p.m. ET on Friday, November 13. The Intel stake grew from 100,000 shares at June 30 — a 28-fold increase — and represents 4.0% of an $8.51 billion portfolio spread across 263 positions. The reported value matches quarter-end prices, so it may differ from what the fund actually paid. The filing doesn't show purchase dates, cost basis, or whether the fund still holds the shares.

Only two lines in the filing were larger than Intel, and both were puts (contracts that gain value when prices fall):

• $670.2 million in puts on the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA:XLE)
• $327.5 million in puts on the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (NYSEARCA:XOP)

The fund also cut its NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) stake by 19% to 858,822 shares, worth $196.1 million, and held puts covering 350,000 NVIDIA shares — a figure counting shares the contracts control, not cash invested. NVIDIA fell 2.01% in the same November 13 session.

What does the loss mean in context?

If the fund still holds every share, the position is worth about $168.8 million. That stings, but it's small next to Intel's $317.09 billion market value. Other holders are in deeper: Primecap Management reported 77,261,208 Intel shares worth $9.29 billion as its largest holding. NVIDIA's own $5.0 billion equity stake in Intel is small for a company worth $3.932 trillion.

What broke the thesis?

The fund was likely betting on AI-driven server demand and a turnaround in Intel's foundry business. The third quarter delivered on that: revenue rose 21% to $16.5 billion, and adjusted EPS of $0.52 beat estimates.

Then guidance hit. Intel forecast fourth-quarter revenue of $15 billion to $16 billion against analyst expectations of about $17.07 billion. Its adjusted EPS outlook of $0.25 missed the expected $0.43. The CFO also said Intel probably won't generate positive free cash flow next year, because it's paying for three manufacturing processes at once.

On October 30, the stock fell 28.6% to $65.76 — its worst day in more than 50 years. Every Intel close in the third quarter fell between $81.88 and $127.39; the stock now trades below that entire range.

What should investors track next?

Server demand is real, but Intel faces a year of heavy spending with no free cash flow. Management expects PC units to fall roughly 10% in 2027. The foundry lost $1.9 billion last quarter. Intel's chief executive bought shares after the record drop — a real show of confidence, though copying a 13F is risky; you learn about September positions only in November.

NVIDIA sits on stronger footing, trading at about 33 times trailing earnings with a 55.60% net margin. It reports Tuesday, November 17. For Intel, a close back above $65.76 would suggest the selloff went too far.