Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are on track to post record third-quarter earnings, with their combined operating profit projected to exceed 188 trillion won, approximately $138.47 billion. Robust demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) used in artificial intelligence servers has produced a persistent shortage of memory semiconductors, lifting both earnings and share prices and prompting securities firms to raise their target prices for the two Korean chipmakers.

Consensus Points to First 100-Trillion-Won Quarter for Samsung

Financial data provider FnGuide put the consensus estimate for Samsung Electronics' third-quarter operating profit at 110.28 trillion won as of Sept. 30. That figure represents an 806% increase from a year earlier and a 23% rise from the previous quarter. If the forecast materializes, Samsung Electronics would post quarterly operating profit of more than 100 trillion won for the first time in its history.

SK hynix is expected to report operating profit of 78.06 trillion won, up 29% from the previous quarter. The combined operating profit of the two companies would come close to 200 trillion won.

Brokers Lift Targets

Domestic securities firms have responded to the earnings momentum with higher price targets. Yuanta Securities raised its target price for Samsung Electronics from 530,000 won to 630,000 won. Mirae Asset Securities lifted its target for the company to 400,000 won. For SK hynix, Mirae Asset Securities set a target price of 3.1 million won, while DB Securities set one at 2.3 million won.

Supply Remains Tight Despite Peak-Out Concerns

Markets have voiced concerns about a potential "semiconductor peak-out" if AI infrastructure investment slows, but supply-side signals still point to tightness. Market research firm TrendForce forecasts that prices for conventional DRAM will rise by as much as 18% in the third quarter, while NAND flash prices are expected to increase 15%. Expectations for greater adoption of sixth-generation HBM4 and improved production yields leave room for further increases in memory prices.

Bernstein Takes a Cautious Stance on SK hynix

Overseas investment firm Bernstein has diverged from the domestic consensus. In a recent report, the firm cut its target price for SK hynix from 3.3 million won to 2.7 million won, citing weaker HBM export flows compared with Samsung Electronics. Analyst Mark Li said South Korea's July and August export data showed positive signals for Samsung Electronics and identified the company as his most preferred stock.

Micron Report and Macro Data as Near-Term Signals

Micron's upcoming earnings report and macroeconomic indicators are expected to provide key signals for the near-term direction of the memory market. If Micron's revenue guidance and profit margins exceed market expectations, concerns over the sector's outlook could ease.

External financial conditions remain a variable. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen to a 19-year high of 5.266%, and international oil prices are also climbing.

Long-Term Contracts Aim to Reduce Volatility

Over the longer term, memory manufacturers have been expanding long-term supply agreements with customers to reduce price volatility. Samsung Electronics, SK hynix and Micron are expanding contracts that secure supply volumes within a set price range, preparing them for the impact of potential price declines.

Bernstein forecasts that gross margins could fall to the high-70% range and memory prices could normalize toward the end of 2028, as manufacturers expand production capacity and AI investment is expected to slow.