Bernstein has lowered its price target on SK Hynix, citing expectations that Samsung Electronics will capture a larger share of the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) market.

The revision marks a notable shift in analyst sentiment toward the two Korean memory suppliers. SK Hynix has held the leading position in HBM supply, the segment critical for AI accelerators and data center GPUs. Bernstein's updated view now anticipates a stronger competitive challenge from Samsung in the same product category.

A reduced price target on SK Hynix reflects the analyst firm's assessment that the company's earnings prospects are weaker than previously modeled. The driver behind the cut is competitive: Samsung's expected share gains in HBM would come at the expense of incumbents, with SK Hynix the most exposed given its current position in the market.

For Samsung, the projected share improvement would represent progress in its effort to secure qualification and volume orders for HBM from major customers. The company has worked to close the gap with its rival in a segment where demand is driven by the buildout of AI compute infrastructure.

For investors, the call reframes the relative positioning of the two suppliers. Bernstein is effectively signaling that the margin and volume assumptions favoring SK Hynix deserve more scrutiny, while Samsung's memory division may hold greater upside than the market currently prices.

The HBM market remains a key battleground among memory makers because the product commands premium pricing relative to standard DRAM. Any shift in supplier share therefore carries direct implications for revenue mix and profitability across the sector.

Bernstein did not stop at the competitive assessment; the firm backed its view by cutting its target on SK Hynix stock, a concrete move that translates the analysis into a revised valuation. The adjustment applies to the shares of the South Korean chipmaker listed on the Korea Exchange.

Market participants tracking the AI hardware supply chain will watch whether other sell-side firms follow with similar revisions. Competing analyst estimates have so far varied in their assessment of how HBM orders will be split among suppliers in the coming cycles.

The report underscores a central question for the memory industry: whether SK Hynix can defend its HBM lead as Samsung ramps its offering. Bernstein's answer, reflected in the lower target, is that the lead will erode.

Neither company has publicly responded to the analyst note. SK Hynix and Samsung both report quarterly results on their regular schedules, and those filings will provide the next hard data points on HBM shipments, pricing, and customer mix.