Samsung Electronics could face AI memory chip prices doubling by 2027, while stock upside for the Korean chipmaker remains constrained, according to a Morningstar equity research note.

The 100% projected increase applies to Samsung's AI-oriented memory portfolio, primarily high-bandwidth memory (HBM) — the stacked DRAM modules that feed Nvidia, AMD, and custom AI accelerators. The Morningstar note described the projected pricing trajectory without specifying a reference period or whether the doubling reflects a single-year or cumulative move.

What does the 2027 horizon reflect?

The 2027 timeline aligns with the expected commercial ramp of HBM4, the industry's next-generation standard. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology each disclosed HBM4 sampling or qualification activity through 2025. Samsung positions HBM4 as a central growth driver for its memory segment through 2027.

The doubling assumption builds on a multi-year upcycle in HBM contract pricing. Standard DRAM prices rose by multiples of legacy norms through 2024 and 2025 as AI training and inference deployments consumed available supply. HBM commanded premiums of several times standard DDR5 pricing at recent contract points.

How constrained is Samsung's market position?

Samsung ranks third in HBM supply share, behind SK Hynix, which dominated HBM3 and HBM3E qualifications with Nvidia through 2024 and into 2025. Samsung secured Nvidia HBM3E qualification during 2025, narrowing the gap. Micron remains a distant third with selective platform wins.

Morningstar framed Samsung's stock as fairly valued relative to projected earnings. The analyst note cited limited capital appreciation potential at current levels, with AI-cycle margin expansion already priced into shares.

The stock trades as a heavyweight on the KOSPI, with Samsung's market capitalization consistently above ₩500 trillion (approximately $360 billion). It splits index weight with SK Hynix as the two largest Korean chip constituents.

What could shift the call?

Three execution vectors could push Samsung above Morningstar's projected fair value:

• Faster HBM4 qualification at Nvidia, capturing incremental share during the 2026–2027 ramp
• Successful penetration into AMD's MI accelerator roadmap
• Expanded custom-silicon wins at major hyperscalers, including Google's TPU program and Amazon's Trainium

Each path would compress the SK Hynix gap and lift blended HBM pricing power. Samsung's qualification cadence with Nvidia through 2026 will likely determine which scenario dominates the analyst model.

What remains uncertain?

The 2027 horizon sits deep in a forecasted capacity-constrained period, but memory cycles have historically swung from acute shortage to glutinous oversupply. A sharper-than-expected AI capex pause among the largest cloud buyers would weigh on Samsung more than SK Hynix, given Samsung's larger exposure to commodity DRAM and NAND.

Samsung's next earnings report will provide updated HBM shipment volumes, average selling prices, and Nvidia qualification status. The reading will reset the timing on Morningstar's pricing model.