Morningstar has pushed back against investor concerns that ASML poses a competitive threat to Besi's hybrid bonding business, arguing that the fears look overdone and that high-bandwidth memory (HBM) adoption is the more relevant factor for the Dutch assembly equipment maker's outlook.

The assessment lands at a moment when Besi's share price has come under pressure from speculation about ASML's ambitions in advanced packaging. According to Morningstar, that speculation misreads where the actual value in hybrid bonding lies for Besi.

Why does Morningstar see the ASML fears as overdone?

Investor anxiety has centered on the possibility that ASML, the dominant supplier of lithography systems, could leverage its position to move into adjacent process steps — including hybrid bonding, the chip-connection technology Besi has staked its future on.

Morningstar's analysts do not share that concern. Their verdict: the competitive threat from ASML to Besi's hybrid bonding market position looks exaggerated relative to the fundamentals.

The reasoning rests on the structure of the equipment market itself. Hybrid bonding for memory applications — where Besi holds a strong position — differs from the logic-side applications where larger toolmakers typically focus. The analysts treat the two segments as sufficiently distinct that an ASML entry would not directly erode Besi's core franchise.

What matters more than ASML, according to the analysts?

Morningstar points to HBM adoption as the variable investors should watch. High-bandwidth memory, the stacked DRAM architecture used in AI accelerators, is the primary driver of demand for hybrid bonding tools in Besi's addressable market.

The practical implication for Besi's order book runs through memory makers' capital expenditure cycles. As HBM volumes scale to meet AI chip demand, memory manufacturers need additional bonding capacity — equipment orders that flow to suppliers positioned in that niche, a category Morningstar places Besi in.

In this framing, the debate over ASML is a distraction. The pace of HBM adoption by memory producers, not competitive entry by a lithography giant, will determine the trajectory of Besi's hybrid bonding revenue.

What does this mean for Besi investors?

Morningstar's position cuts against a narrative that has weighed on sentiment toward the packaging equipment sector. Key elements of the analyst view:

• ASML-related fears for Besi's hybrid bonding business are overdone.
• HBM adoption is the more relevant driver of Besi's hybrid bonding outlook.
• Demand from memory manufacturers scaling HBM production underpins the investment case.

For a company whose valuation has been hostage to speculation about a much larger rival, the analyst note reframes the question. The risk worth monitoring is demand-side: whether memory makers sustain their HBM build-out at a pace that converts into bonding tool orders.

Morningstar's conclusion is direct. The ASML threat to Besi's hybrid bonding market looks overdone, and investors tracking the stock should weight HBM adoption — not hypothetical competitive entry — as the decisive factor for the equipment supplier's advanced packaging business.