Over Half of Pre-Construction Hyperscale Capacity Now Sits in High-Risk States

More than half of U.S. hyperscaler capacity that has yet to break ground sits in states facing elevated regulatory risk, according to TrendForce. Texas holds the largest share of that exposed capacity. The finding follows midterm elections in which voters in three key data center states elected governors who campaigned on pausing or tightening development.

TrendForce expects state-level policy to shift toward stricter constraints and, in some cases, statewide moratoria (formal government suspensions of approvals). The new governors take office in January. It remains unclear how fully they will follow through on their pledges.

What does the election change for the buildout?

The timing matters more than the headlines. Most capacity slated for 2027 is already under construction. Delay risk therefore falls mainly on projects planned for 2028 and beyond.

The elections mark a sharp reversal in state politics. Two years ago, data center construction was largely outside the American political consciousness, and most states courted hyperscalers with layered tax incentives. Many of those incentives have since been rolled back.

TrendForce notes three fronts on which the backlash now plays out:

• A bipartisan political backlash
• Permitting and approval bottlenecks that can stall projects regardless of federal or state support
• Local residents' concerns over rising electricity rates and environmental issues

Opposition has spread from town halls to state capitols, a shift that took roughly two years to move from near-total political silence to legislative restriction.

How much legislation has actually moved?

The bill counts are the clearest measure. States introduced more data center-related bills in the first four months of 2026 than in all of 2024 and 2025 combined. During the same period, states introduced 33 bills to restrict or repeal data center tax breaks or impose new taxes. That figure already exceeds the total for all of 2025.

The legislative focus has shifted from attracting data centers to limiting where and how they can be built.

Where did the risk ratings rise?

TrendForce has updated its state-by-state regulatory risk map. Four states saw their ratings change after the election:

• Texas: raised to severe risk
• Georgia: raised to severe risk
• Oregon: raised to severe risk, following Governor Tina Kotek's statewide pause on data center permits
• Wisconsin: raised to high risk, given a significant chance of a moratorium or pause

The scores carry limits that TrendForce itself spells out. They reflect only regulatory risk attributable to the 2026 election cycle: actions taken before the election and policies the winners are likely to deliver by Q2 2027. They exclude laws passed before this cycle and county or municipal moratoria. States such as Virginia therefore still face significant regulatory pressure through channels the map does not capture.

What is not said?

The analysis does not quantify how many megawatts sit in each risk tier. It does not estimate how long a moratorium might last. The claim that governors will deliver restrictive policy by Q2 2027 is a forecast, not a fact. The pledges themselves are campaign promises, and the source explicitly flags that follow-through is untested. TrendForce directs readers to its Data Center Tracker sales team for capacity figures, which the public summary omits.