Nvidia Wipes Out $913 Billion in Five Sessions, Worst Run Since 2022

Nvidia lost roughly $913 billion in market value over five trading sessions, its worst such stretch since September 2022 and worse than the DeepSeek shock of January 2025. The stock fell 18.29% from a $206.69 close to $168.89 on Tuesday. Based on Tuesday's $4.08 trillion market value and 24.15 billion shares outstanding, the drop erased almost a tenth of the company's worth in a week.

The decline has opened a wide gap between Wall Street and the market. Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) trades at $177.22, against an average analyst price target of $325.78. That target implies 83.83% upside. Earnings arrive November 17 after the close, the first hard test of which side is closer to right.

How bad was the five-day run?

The comparison with 2022 is precise. The last worse stretch ended September 1, 2022, when the split-adjusted stock fell 22.2%, from $17.91 to $13.94. Another window in April 2022 saw a 19.89% drop, so "since 2022" means since that September.

The DeepSeek episode set a different record. Nvidia lost 16.97% in a single January 2025 session, falling from $142.62 to $118.42. Its worst five sessions around that shock cost 15.89% — still smaller than this week's slide, which also exceeded the 17.22% drop over the five sessions that ended in September 2024.

No single day this week matched the DeepSeek session. The worst was a 9.26% fall to $181.60. The lone up day, a 2.78% bounce to $186.64, did not hold. Other sessions fell 3.17% to $200.13 and 4.27% to $178.67. On Tuesday, the stock lost $9.78, or 5.47%, on 429.2 million shares, trading as low as $165.89. Tuesday's close was the lowest since a $165.17 finish in late March.

What triggered the sell-off?

Three pressures landed at once:

• Governance probe. Independent directors hired Joon H. Kim, a former acting U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, along with Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz. They will investigate reports that CEO Jensen Huang was targeted by a foreign intelligence effort. The board says it has no reason to believe national security or Nvidia secrets were compromised.
• China hardware leaks. At least $7.5 billion of Nvidia hardware has reportedly reached Chinese companies since 2023 through a network linked to businesswoman Alice Huang, who is not related to the CEO.
• Hot inflation. October consumer prices rose 0.4% and core prices rose 0.3%, above forecasts. That hits high-multiple stocks hardest.

There is an echo of 2022 here. That slide also had a China trigger: new export license rules for the A100 and H100 chips, which Nvidia said could cost about $400 million in quarterly China sales. Recovery waited for the chip cycle to turn, and the DeepSeek drop reversed once buyers decided cheaper, more efficient AI would increase chip demand.

Are analysts holding the line?

Mostly, yes. Of 62 analysts, 10 rate Nvidia Strong Buy, 49 Buy, two Hold and one Sell. Measured from Tuesday's close, the consensus target implies 92.89% upside — though targets often lag fast-moving news.

The dissenters moved:

• Baird downgraded to Neutral from Outperform and cut its target to $200 from $500, citing uncertainty over Huang's tenure and possible lower cloud AI spending in 2027. Analyst Tristan Gerra estimated a possible new H200 export ban could mean a $5 billion write-down.
• Morgan Stanley removed Nvidia as a Top Pick but kept its Overweight rating and $300 target.
• Bank of America dropped it from its top-ideas list.

Business results remain strong. Revenue rose 105.8% last quarter to $96.22 billion, and the stock trades at about 11 times forward earnings. Nvidia says chip demand still outpaces supply.

What does this change for investors?

The sell-off was company-specific. Over the same five sessions, AMD gained 6.47% and Broadcom slipped just 0.05%. AMD trades at $565.39 against a $657.49 target (16.29% upside); Broadcom at $353.01 against $533.42 (51.11% upside). Nvidia is down 4.75% this year while the S&P 500 is up 9.97%.

The bull case after earnings needs data center demand ahead of supply, steady guidance, and a board update that narrows the investigation. The bear case needs Huang's job in question or an H200 ban that turns the China report into an enforcement case. Losing a founder-CEO could hold down the valuation for several quarters, though a $5 billion write-down would be small next to one quarter's $96.22 billion in revenue.

On Wednesday, Nvidia opened at $172.80 and was up 4.93% by early afternoon, for a market value near $4.28 trillion. A rolling five-day count ending Wednesday shows a smaller decline of about 11.4%. At roughly 11 times forward earnings, the stock already prices in a governance failure that no one has demonstrated.