AMD Outran Nvidia by 31.68 Points in One Week. Nvidia Still Wins the Case

AMD beat Nvidia by 31.68 percentage points in the five sessions ended November 13, 2026. AMD rose 18.93% while Nvidia fell 12.75%, according to verified closing prices. The Kobeissi Letter called it AMD's greatest five-session outperformance against Nvidia since Nvidia's 1999 IPO. Year to date, AMD is up 149.37% and Nvidia is down 12.48%.

The trigger was not silicon. Nvidia opened an independent investigation after reports that CEO Jensen Huang had a relationship with a suspected Chinese spy. Commerce Secretary Lutnick will testify before the Senate Banking Committee. Nvidia shares have dropped 26.41% in a month, closing at $162.85. AMD closed at $534.06. No findings from the investigation have been released, and that gap shapes every recovery claim below.

Which stock is cheaper now?

The selloff flipped the valuation math in Nvidia's favor. Nvidia's trailing earnings multiple (share price divided by trailing twelve-month profit) is 33. AMD's is 202. Nvidia's free cash flow yield (free cash flow divided by market value) stands at 2.46% against 0.76% for AMD. Its earnings yield is 3.05% against 0.49%. AMD's price already assumes years of flawless execution. Nvidia wins this category.

Which company is growing faster?

AMD's third quarter delivered revenue of $13.377 billion, up 44.68%, with non-GAAP EPS of $2.09 against a $1.94 consensus. Data center sales reached $8.546 billion, up 97%, as Anthropic, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI and Oracle brought Helios racks online. Fourth-quarter guidance calls for about $17 billion, roughly 66% year-over-year growth, and management expects revenue to grow more than 80% in 2027.

CEO Lisa Su said: "Data center revenue growth has accelerated sequentially every quarter this year."

Nvidia is far larger. Second-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue was $96.221 billion, up 105.85%. Its fiscal 2028 outlook calls for growth of about 70%, limited by supply. AMD's growth rate is rising while Nvidia's moderates. AMD wins this category.

Whose business is stronger?

Nvidia posts a 71.1% gross margin, a 60.4% operating margin and a 101.5% return on equity. AMD's figures are 49.5%, 10.7% and 7.19%. Nvidia generated $21.341 billion of free cash flow last quarter and returned a record $26 billion to shareholders, with about $99 billion left on its buyback authorization and a $0.25 quarterly dividend.

AMD pays no dividend. Its free cash flow fell 70.86% to $554 million as inventory climbed to $11.463 billion. That inventory build is the number AMD's headline growth does not explain.

Nvidia carries disclosed risks. Management stated: "there is no China data center compute revenue in our forward outlook." Margins are expected to bottom at 71% to 72% in the fourth quarter. Nvidia still wins this category on profitability.

What is the verdict?

Nvidia wins two of three categories, and the two it wins matter most for retirement money. A portfolio built for capital preservation and steady compounding benefits more from a 33x multiple, industry-leading margins and consistent buybacks than from a 202x stock whose cash flow is being absorbed by inventory. AMD carries higher volatility, with drawdowns like its 8.75% drop on November 13 alone.

Nvidia's recovery path runs through three milestones:

• A clean result from the independent investigation
• Delivery against its $108 billion third-quarter revenue guide
• A Vera Rubin ramp expected to supply about 20% of data center revenue in Q3

Huang framed the supply constraint simply: "Even though our demand is much greater than 70%, our supply allows us to confidently deliver 70%."

The scandal knocked the stock down. Nvidia's earnings and cash flow give it the stronger case for recovery. But that case remains contingent on an investigation whose outcome nobody can yet price.