NVIDIA slides 27% as Wall Street resets targets after CEO exit

By Marcus Bennett

NVIDIA shares traded at $166.19 after a 27.28% monthly decline, leaving the $4.013 trillion market value near its $163.90 52-week low. The average target from 62 analysts is $319.99, implying 92.5% upside, while the forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at roughly 11x. An implied gain above 40% is rare for a company of that size.

The stock lost 8.49% over the past week, against a 2.67% monthly fall for the S&P 500. Year to date, NVIDIA is down 10.68% while the S&P 500 is up 11.05%; over one year, NVIDIA lost 14.04%, against a 10.81% index gain.

The company sells GPUs, networking and software behind most large AI data centers. Its latest quarterly revenue reached $96.221 billion, up 105.85% year over year. Such growth has not stopped investors from repricing leadership risk.

Leadership shock

The Wall Street Journal reported Huang's ouster as CEO; NBC News described it as a resignation, linked the share fall to the announcement and said NVIDIA weighed on the broader market. The New York Times had previously reported a relationship between Huang and an NVIDIA executive who reported to him.

Raymond James senior analyst Simon Leopold said there was “limited reason” to expect near-term disruption to customer commitments or product roadmaps. His view places NVIDIA's resilience in its engineering organization, CUDA ecosystem and full-stack architecture.

The CFO reportedly takes over on an interim basis. Next week's earnings report will be the first direct test of operations and governance. Non-GAAP EPS of $2.22 exceeded the $2.0887 consensus, yet the leadership shock amplified several older concerns.

• Management expects gross margin to bottom at 71% to 72% in the fourth quarter because of memory costs.
• Days sales outstanding rose to 60 days.
• NVIDIA has put nearly $50 billion into frontier AI labs, drawing criticism that the deals amount to circular financing.

What does the $515 target assume?

Raymond James senior analyst Simon Leopold kept a Strong Buy rating and a $515 target, the highest in the coverage, implying about 210% upside from the current price. He locates NVIDIA's moat in its engineering organization, CUDA ecosystem and full-stack architecture.

That target applies 22 times CY28 earnings and assumes an annual revenue run rate approaching $1 trillion by early 2029. TSMC capacity, HBM supply and Vera Rubin rack deliveries are already locked before deployment, according to Leopold.

On the last earnings call, CFO Colette Kress guided to about 70% fiscal 2028 growth, limited by supply, and put Vera Rubin's revenue opportunity at $40 billion per gigawatt. Fiscal 2028 consensus EPS has risen to $15.9146 from $12.8148 over 90 days.

Oppenheimer and Baird cut targets or moved to the sidelines. Bernstein halved its target to $200, and Citigroup applied a 25% key-person discount. The rating split remains 10 Strong Buy, 49 Buy, two Hold and one Sell.

Many targets predate Huang's departure, so they offer guidance rather than a reliable measure of post-departure sentiment.

AMD and Broadcom held up

• AMD: Shares stood at $585.30, down 3.34% over the month but up 30.34% over the week. The $657.49 average target implies 12.3% upside. Ratings comprise five Strong Buy, 39 Buy and 11 Hold.
• Broadcom: Shares stood at $364.36, up 1.97% over the month and 24.06% over the week. The $533.42 target implies 46.4% upside. Ratings comprise eight Strong Buy, 41 Buy and two Hold.
• NVIDIA: Its 92.5% implied upside is far wider, mainly because its own price fell as investors priced in leadership risk that AMD and Broadcom did not face.

What does the CEO change mean for investors?

For the bull case, next week's report must confirm the $108.0 billion revenue guide, Vera Rubin must ship on schedule, and the board must name a credible permanent CEO quickly. Meeting those conditions would reopen the path toward the average target, while Raymond James's $515 case also requires the 70% growth rate.

The bear case gains weight if the governance issue expands, the CEO search lasts, or financing for AI labs becomes uncertain. Kress said that financing should drive roughly one quarter of next year's business. Gross margin moving toward the low 70s would add pressure.

Investors must separate NVIDIA's operating strength from its unresolved leadership and financing risks. Locked customer commitments, TSMC capacity, HBM supply and Rubin schedules support a constructive view, but they do not remove those risks.

The stance here remains bullish. At roughly 11x forward earnings, the market prices NVIDIA as a damaged franchise. The $515 target is the best case; the $319.99 average target offers the more defensible base case.