The Chinese memory testing equipment market carries roughly 80% import dependency. Domestic suppliers now plan to expand that 20% residual share as AI-driven HBM demand lifts test order volumes, TrendForce reports.

The 80% metric refers to the share of test cells and memory test equipment deployed across Chinese fabs and outsourced semiconductor assembly and test (OSAT) facilities that originates from non-domestic suppliers. Foreign vendors continue to dominate high-end DRAM and HBM test programs. Domestic Chinese suppliers have historically captured commodity memory test work and selected wafer-probe applications.

What is driving memory test demand upward?

TrendForce cites two forces: the AI accelerator build-out at cloud and hyperscaler customers, and the specific test burden imposed by high-bandwidth memory stacks. HBM uses vertically stacked DRAM dies connected to a base logic die through through-silicon vias, a packaging approach that adds multiple test stages beyond conventional DDR memory. The additional steps include:

• Known-good-die validation before stacking
• Stack-level thermal and signal-integrity testing after assembly
• Final-package validation at multi-gigatransfer data rates

The combination of rising HBM bit shipments and the higher test burden per stack has translated into a step-change in memory test equipment demand, and Chinese OSAT and IDM facilities participate in that expansion.

Why does the 80% import share matter?

The figure quantifies the addressable opportunity for Chinese equipment makers. With foreign vendors holding roughly four-fifths of the installed base, the remaining share represents the wedge domestic suppliers are now trying to widen. The 20% baseline already in domestic hands — concentrated in commodity DDR and NAND test cells — provides the operational base from which Chinese vendors are pushing into higher-end programs.

TrendForce frames the AI and HBM cycle as the catalyst that could shift this ratio. Chinese equipment makers use HBM-related test orders as the entry point into segments previously served by imports.

What technology barriers do domestic suppliers face?

HBM-class testing imposes requirements that differ from commodity DRAM test flows. Thermal handling at the stack level, high parallel-site counts, and signal-integrity validation at multi-gigatransfer data rates all push equipment capability upward. Foreign incumbents continue to set the technology baseline in these high-end segments.

The qualification cycle for new memory test equipment typically extends over multiple quarters. Capacity decisions taken now shape the supplier mix for the next several years. Chinese equipment vendors seeking entry into HBM test flows must clear qualification gates at domestic memory IDMs and at OSAT houses serving both domestic and export customers.

How does this fit the broader localization effort?

The memory test equipment push sits inside a wider Chinese semiconductor self-sufficiency drive. Memory testing differs from front-end lithography or from memory device manufacturing itself in that domestic suppliers already operate at scale in selected segments. The 20% domestic share is not zero, and it provides a foundation for incremental gains.

HBM specifically ties the equipment opportunity to the AI accelerator supply chain. With HBM demand projected to grow alongside AI training and inference workloads, test capacity has emerged as a binding constraint on the supply chain. Securing domestic test capability for HBM-class parts becomes a supply-chain risk question as well as a cost question.

What remains uncertain?

TrendForce does not specify a timeline for share shift in the report, nor does it quantify the revenue impact on individual equipment vendors. The pace of localization will depend on qualification outcomes at Chinese memory makers and on the technology gap between domestic and foreign test cells for the most advanced HBM programs.

What the data point does establish is the size of the opening: roughly 80% of memory testing equipment in China is imported, and that share is the explicit target of a domestic supply push timed to the HBM-driven demand cycle.