AI Fiber Shortage Pushes Ukraine Drone Cable to $29 per Kilometer

Marcus Bennett

By November 2026, Ukrainian drone makers paid about six to ten times more for optical fiber than in 2025, as AI data centers tightened supply and China-centered production left little slack.

What changed in the fiber market?

VYRIY saw one kilometer of G.657.A2 fiber rise from about $4 to $29 in under one quarter, roughly 7.25 times. BlueBird Tech now pays about six to ten times its 2025 price.

Ars Technica combined manufacturer quotes, a Defense Procurement Agency statement and TrendForce forecasts; MLQ.ai later reported the six-to-tenfold rise. The evidence shows a direction, not a formal market index.

Serhii Honcharov, executive director of NAUDI, said: “Fiber-optic cable is an acute shortage for drone manufacturers and is not produced in Ukraine.”

How does the drone cable work?

A fiber-optic first-person-view drone trails a cable carrying control commands and video through glass rather than radio waves, making the link resistant to frequency jammers. Ukrainian and Russian forces adopted that resistance.

G.657.A2 is single-mode, bend-insensitive fiber. Its tolerance suits spools and tight turns. Every crash or strike leaves cable behind, so consumption scales with sorties and finished-spool quality matters.

How large is the shortage?

TrendForce expects 577 million fiber-km of global demand in 2026 and a 180 million fiber-km shortfall, equal to about 31% of projected demand.

At an 18% to 20% share, data centers need 104 million to 115 million fiber-km, linking thousands of accelerators across racks, rows and buildings.

• Data centers take 18% to 20% of 2026 demand and 30% to 35% in 2027.
• Bend-insensitive fiber will average more than five times its 2025 price.
• Mainstream telecom fiber should average 3.7 times 2025 levels.
• AI-backbone fiber should reach 2.8 times 2025 levels.

The drone-maker quotes exceed those averages. AI and telecom buyers use long contracts; small workshops buy spot lots and take the sharpest move.

Why are Ukrainian workshops exposed?

Ukraine’s Defense Procurement Agency cites wartime demand, AI-led civilian consumption and production concentrated in China. Both sides buy from Chinese suppliers, competing indirectly for output from the same mills that serve telecom and AI customers.

Kyiv controls neither civilian demand nor Chinese output. Drone orders form a small queue, and wartime buyers are less price-sensitive than contracted data-center customers, so they can pull marginal supply.

How are manufacturers responding?

BlueBird Tech buys large spools and winds smaller drone spools in-house, cutting processing margins. Representative Oleksiy cited defects in some finished Chinese spools; sources do not establish whether volume caused those defects.

Viktor Yevpak, CEO of Edrone, said Edrone had to “cover deficits from previous revenue” while fulfilling state orders. Fixed-price contracts left it exposed to rising inputs. Grim Tech reported a sixfold rise for a component on its Hromylo Optic line and temporarily suspended state-marketplace deliveries.

What does this change for defense buyers?

The Ukrainian state must raise unit prices or accept fewer drones for the same budget. Manufacturers absorb contract gaps, and soldiers receive fewer replacements when deliveries pause. Western planners may need fiber stockpiles and qualified second sources, as for munitions and batteries.

AI-cloud buyers hold contracts for AI-backbone fiber, forecast at 2.8 times 2025 prices. Mainstream telecom fiber is forecast at 3.7 times, while bend-insensitive fiber exceeds five times. Small workshops lack comparable bargaining power.

Wired drones lose some cost advantage over radio models, though jammers still constrain the alternative. No source reports operators abandoning fiber.

What could ease the shortage?

AI spending has sold out HBM and tightened grid power, turbines and permits. Used turbines and jet engines reportedly cost $1.3 million per MW; Norway paused data-center grid deals totaling 4,200 MW. CoreWeave reported Q3 2026 revenue of $3.66 billion, illustrating continued network buildout.

OpenAI still wants more AI data centers, while 41 US data-center votes show organized local resistance; any effect on fiber orders remains uncertain.

CNBC reported that SoftBank posted a $7 billion second-quarter net loss, while The Information put write-offs on data-center advance payments at $3.7 billion. Neither links directly to fiber. Delayed projects could cool demand, but continued tightness remains the more likely 2026 outcome.

What should buyers expect through 2027?

Our analysis points to five outcomes, each contingent on whether AI financing sustains the present build cycle and whether new fiber capacity arrives before year-end.

• Prices stay elevated through 2026 amid the 180 million fiber-km deficit.
• In-house spool winding spreads to cut processing costs and avoid defects.
• State contracts add price indexing or direct fiber supply after producer losses.
• Ukraine pursues domestic or allied production because it makes no cable.
• Data-center demand reaches the forecast 30% to 35% share in 2027.

AI financing remains the main uncertainty because delayed builds could loosen supply faster than TrendForce expects.

What remains unconfirmed?

No source published monthly Ukrainian production, supplier exposure, price duration or a full order-cost ledger. Company quotes remain snapshots; TrendForce figures are forecasts. Ukraine’s 374,000 contracted fiber-optic FPV drones in 2025 do not reveal total use without a standard spool length.

At VYRIY’s reported prices, 10 km cost $40 before the rise and $290 afterward. That is an illustration, not a stated spool size.