TSMC booked third-quarter 2026 consolidated revenue of NT$1.494244 trillion (approximately $46.8 billion), an all-time quarterly record that exceeded the upper end of the company's own guidance. The figure, disclosed October 8, represents growth of 55.81% quarter-over-quarter and 50.94% year-over-year.

September revenue came in at NT$511.857 billion (approximately $16.0 billion), down just 0.6% month-over-month but up 54.6% year-over-year. That marks the second consecutive month above NT$500 billion and the second-highest monthly figure in the foundry's history. Analysts had expected a far weaker month: consensus forecasts ranged from NT$444.8 billion to NT$483.2 billion, implying a roughly 9.9% month-over-month decline.

For the first three quarters of 2026, cumulative revenue reached NT$3.898727 trillion (approximately $122.2 billion), up 41.1% year-over-year — the best performance for the period in company history.

How far above guidance did TSMC land?

At its second-quarter earnings call, TSMC guided Q3 revenue in US dollar terms to a range of $44.6 billion to $45.8 billion. Using an assumed exchange rate of NT$32 per US dollar, that translated to roughly NT$1.4272 trillion to NT$1.4656 trillion. Actual revenue of NT$1.494244 trillion comfortably cleared the top of that range.

The outperformance scale is notable. At the US dollar guidance midpoint, quarter-over-quarter growth would have been roughly 12% and year-over-year growth roughly 37%. The reported figures — 55.81% and 50.94%, respectively — point to AI-related orders as the primary growth engine, with shipment momentum for advanced process nodes running well ahead of what the market modeled.

What will the October 15 earnings call cover?

TSMC will hold its third-quarter earnings call on October 15, and industry sources identify five focal points:

• AI growth momentum and demand visibility;
• advanced process and advanced packaging capacity expansion plans;
• capital expenditure planning for next year;
• overseas expansion, including a potential fab in Texas;
• the possibility of foundry price increases in 2027.

Ahead of the call, US-based sell-side analysts published optimistic projections. They forecast US dollar revenue growth of 42% in 2026 and 36.9% in 2027, with gross margins reaching 67.2% and 67.5% respectively. The analysts also raised their capital expenditure estimates for TSMC: from $78 billion (approximately NT$2.5 trillion) to $85 billion (approximately NT$2.7 trillion) for 2027, and from $82 billion (approximately NT$2.6 trillion) to $98 billion (approximately NT$3.1 trillion) for 2028.

TSMC entered its pre-earnings quiet period on October 5, which runs through October 14, during which the company will not communicate with institutional investors or brokerages.

What about margins and the stock?

TSMC guided third-quarter gross margin to 65%–67% and operating margin to 56%–58%. Actual profitability figures will be disclosed at the earnings call, and the market broadly expects results at the upper end of those ranges as advanced process revenue share rises.

The stock pulled back on October 8, closing down NT$35 at NT$2,550, a decline of approximately 1.35%. It traded as low as NT$2,560 intraday, down NT$25 or 0.97%, as sentiment turned cautious ahead of the revenue release.

Analysts maintained that revenue and demand momentum remain the core metrics for assessing TSMC's fundamentals despite the short-term retreat. The Q3 beat, combined with successive upward revisions to capital expenditure estimates by foreign brokerages, suggests AI-driven demand for advanced nodes shows no signs of cooling, and that customer competition for advanced process capacity is more aggressive than previously assessed.

The full-year outlook and capacity plans due on October 15 will serve as key variables for the stock's direction — and, more broadly, as bellwethers for the semiconductor industry cycle.

Item	September 2026	Q3 2026	First Three Quarters 2026
Consolidated Revenue	NT$511.857 billion	NT$1.494244 trillion	NT$3.898727 trillion
MoM / QoQ	-0.6%	+55.81%	—
YoY Growth	+54.6%	+50.94%	+41.1%
Historical Ranking	Second-highest	Quarterly record	Record for same period