Nebius revenue outlook misses as capex rises to $27 billion

By Elena Vasquez

Nebius shares fell 17.71% after the neocloud provider guided fiscal 2026 revenue to $3 billion, the low end of its range, and raised this year's capital spending to $27 billion. The revenue forecast missed the London Stock Exchange Group's $3.37 billion estimate, while capital spending exceeded FactSet's $23.85 billion projection.

How did Nebius perform in the third quarter?

Nebius said in its third-quarter earnings release on the 12th, local time, that revenue reached $980.8 million (1.3103 trillion won), up 571% from a year earlier. The result beat LSEG's $907.5 million consensus estimate, while net loss narrowed to $37.5 million from $119.6 million.

How is Volozh framing demand and capital?

Chief Executive Arkady Volozh said: "Capital markets have been volatile lately. Two questions are being raised across the industry: How fast can the AI buildout proceed, and who will pay for it? These are very important questions." His comments put capital access at the center of the earnings reaction.

He continued: "My view is simple. AI demand is real and substantial. Everything else — building capacity, raising capital — is just a task. It may be difficult, but it is all solvable." For operators, the distinction is practical: demand supports the buildout, but capacity deployment and financing determine when revenue arrives.

Why did the forecast miss, and how much will Nebius spend?

In a shareholder letter, Volozh said Nebius expects fiscal 2026 revenue at the low end of its projected $3 billion-to-$3.4 billion range. LSEG had expected $3.37 billion.

Nebius also delayed computing capacity originally scheduled to come online this year until the first half of 2027. The postponement weighs on revenue, while the spending plan raises a separate question about when new computing capacity comes online.

Capital expenditure guidance rose to $27 billion for this year, above Nebius's earlier $20 billion-to-$25 billion range. It also topped FactSet's $23.85 billion estimate, making financing conditions central to the expansion plan.

For next year, Nebius projected $40 billion-to-$45 billion in capital spending, against FactSet's $28.77 billion forecast. The two-year commitment exceeds analyst expectations in both years, increasing the amount of capital that Nebius must raise.

What did the selloff mean for CoreWeave?

Rival CoreWeave had earlier posted better-than-expected results, despite funding pressures and concerns that data-center construction could stall after the midterm elections. After Nebius's weaker outlook, CoreWeave shares also fell 7.5%.

The two companies are battling for leadership in the neocloud market. Nebius's 17.71% decline was recorded at 2:19 p.m. Eastern Time, compared with CoreWeave's 7.5% drop.

What does Nvidia's leadership change mean?

Jensen Huang was forced out as Nvidia's chief executive over an extramarital affair with a woman suspected of spying for China. Nebius's results came just after his exit, raising questions about the GPU supply and investment links supporting the neocloud market.

Huang had helped Nebius secure GPUs and attract investment. Nvidia held roughly $329 million of Nebius stock at the end of June, and in March announced a $2 billion investment to develop AI technology.

The neocloud market grew under Huang, but drew criticism over circular financing. Some investors fear his removal will severely destabilize the market, despite Nvidia's investments in operators that secure its GPUs.

What could slow new capacity?

A sweeping Democratic victory in the midterm elections has slowed new data-center construction. That slowdown adds to the funding and execution pressures Volozh identified, making project timing and capital availability the immediate variables for operators.