Cerebras raises revenue outlook; Microsoft deal lifts CBRS 16%

By Elena Vasquez

Shares of the Leverage Shares 2X Long CBRS Daily ETF jumped 16% to $0.81 in afternoon trading after Cerebras Systems reported a third-quarter revenue beat, raised its 2026 forecast and disclosed a Microsoft cloud agreement. Cerebras itself rose 8% to $105.92.

That rebound has not repaired the ETF’s longer-term performance. CBRG remains below $1 and is down 55% over the past month, while Cerebras shares are down 47% since their May initial public offering.

The ETF seeks twice CBRS’s daily percentage move and resets each trading day. Returns can therefore drift materially from twice the underlying stock’s cumulative performance, particularly when Cerebras reverses sharply.

What did Cerebras report?

Cerebras released its third-quarter 2026 results after the close on November 12. The adjusted and core figures exceeded analyst estimates, although the company still reported a GAAP loss.

• Core revenue reached $230.9 million, ahead of the $214.7 million LSEG consensus.
• Adjusted earnings came in at 12 cents per share, against an LSEG consensus loss of 14 cents.
• GAAP loss was $0.67 per share, weighed down by $155.1 million in stock-based compensation.

Guidance provided the larger market catalyst. Management forecast fourth-quarter revenue of $310 million to $330 million, well above the $271 million LSEG consensus.

Cerebras also raised its full-year 2026 core revenue outlook to $940 million to $960 million. Management repeated plans to triple revenue in 2027, implying $2.85 billion, slightly below the $2.92 billion LSEG consensus.

What does the Microsoft agreement change?\n

Microsoft has become Cerebras’s latest hyperscaler customer. Andrew Feldman said the agreement was signed in October, with revenue expected to begin in the first quarter of 2027.

Together with two earlier hyperscaler agreements, the Microsoft contract gives Cerebras three hyperscalers using its platform for inference. Feldman said: “Cerebras’ technology remains the undisputed champion of speed.”

Cerebras builds wafer-scale processors for AI inference and sells complete systems while renting computing capacity through Cerebras Cloud, which now generates most of the company’s revenue. Its architecture skips high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, which management expects will help the company avoid the memory-supply squeeze facing competitors through 2028.

That focus makes Cerebras a more concentrated bet on inference speed. NVIDIA offers a broader accelerated-computing platform spanning GPUs, networking, complete systems and the CUDA software ecosystem, serving hyperscalers, enterprises and sovereign governments.

AMD has a similarly broad portfolio, covering data-center accelerators, server and PC processors, gaming and embedded products, plus Helios rack-scale systems. Both larger chip companies remain more exposed to sector-wide sentiment than Cerebras.

Why did NVIDIA and AMD fall?

The earnings reaction pushed Cerebras higher against a weaker technology market. Cerebras rose 8%, while its larger chip peers declined during a broad sector selloff.

• NVIDIA: Shares traded at $161.09, down 3%, while the Nasdaq 100 fell 2% and technology was the weakest sector.
• AMD: Shares traded at $522.93, down 11%, a steeper decline despite AMD’s direct commercial relationship with Cerebras.

On the November 12 earnings call, Cerebras said its production disaggregated inference platform pairs AMD GPUs for prefill with Cerebras CS-3 systems for decode. The different share moves reflect that Cerebras traded on company-specific earnings and guidance, while NVIDIA and AMD carried greater sensitivity to the wider chip market.

What could determine Cerebras’s next move?

The immediate test is whether Microsoft revenue begins on schedule. Cerebras reported $26.1 billion in remaining performance obligations as of September 30 and reiterated its 2027 growth plan. Management also expects a return to breakeven core operating profit in the fourth quarter.

OpenAI presents a separate capacity risk. Cerebras acknowledged that it was running behind on initial capacity because of land, power and building-shell constraints under its OpenAI agreement. The company expects to return to schedule in the second half of 2027.

Management said it had received no OpenAI cancellations of delayed capacity as of the November 12 call. Any cancellation would matter directly to Cerebras and with greater force to CBRG, whose daily reset magnifies declines in the underlying shares.

For leveraged-ETF investors, the Microsoft ramp and the OpenAI capacity timeline now stand as the main company-specific swing factors. The current rebound restores a 2-for-1 daily relationship in the session, but it does not remove the fund’s 55% monthly loss or its exposure to path-dependent compounding.