AMD Erases 17% Crash in Two Sessions, Closing Up 13% at $508.58

Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) closed up 13% at $508.58 on Monday, recovering everything Thursday's 17% crash took — and more. The rally added nearly $100 billion in market value. Two catalysts landed the same morning: Oppenheimer upgraded AMD to Outperform with a $600 price target, and AMD said its EPYC processors will run the host side of Google Cloud's new TPU 8tx systems.

Nvidia, meanwhile, fell as much as 8.8% and closed down 4.3%, a drop worth about $192 billion in market value, one day after its board opened an independent investigation into reports about chief executive Jensen Huang.

What did Lisa Su say?

AMD chair and CEO Lisa Su spent Thursday watching her stock fall 17.26% to $404.40 — the worst day for chip stocks since 2020. Asked about it that afternoon on Yahoo Finance, she said: "I think the market can sometimes be a little bit short-sighted. It is what it is."

Two sessions later the stock is up 25.8% from that close, back above the $488.78 pre-crash level. Monday's rally reads as the market moving to Su's side, at least for now: an upgrade, a Google contract and a rival's bad day, all in one morning. The limit is obvious. A stock that fell 17% in a session on Thursday can do it again.

What does the upgrade rest on?

Oppenheimer's Rick Schafer upgraded AMD from Perform in a Sunday note, with a target 34% above Friday's close. He models data center revenue growing 135% next year and cited AMD's third quarter, reported Nov. 3:

• Revenue of $13.4 billion, up 45%
• Data center revenue of $8.5 billion, up 97%
• Fourth-quarter outlook of about $17 billion, plus or minus 3%
• Su's forecast on the call of 2027 revenue growth above 80%

By Monday's close AMD had covered 39% of the distance from Friday to $600; the remaining upside to target is 18%. A repeat of Thursday's 17.26% drop from Monday's price would cost $87,798 in a day on a 1,000-share position — and that scenario has already happened twice this year.

What does a 17% day mean for holders?

Consider a 67-year-old retired engineer who bought 1,000 AMD shares on Oct. 14, 2022, at $55.94 — that year's lowest close — for $55,940, in a taxable account. His household holds $1.9 million more: a $1.5 million rollover IRA, a $200,000 Roth, and $200,000 in an index fund and cash. He and his wife, 64, collect $60,000 a year in Social Security and draw $60,000 from the IRA.

At Friday's close the shares were worth $449,040. Monday: $508,580 — a $59,540 gain in one session, $104,180 in two. The unrealized gain is $452,640; the position is worth 9.1 times cost.

Two numbers frame the decision. At the Oct. 6 record close of $649.42 the shares were worth $649,420, so even after Monday he sits $140,840 below peak. And when AMD closed last year at $214.16, the position was 10% of the couple's money; at Monday's price it is 21% of a $2,408,580 portfolio. He did nothing, and one stock doubled its share of his retirement.

What does history say after a 17% drop?

AMD has closed down 15% or more in a single session 19 times since 2000, counting Thursday. Two came this year. On Feb. 4 the stock fell 17.3% on its outlook, then rose 110% over three months. Across the 18 earlier drops:

• Higher six months later in 12 cases, median gain 23%
• Higher three months later in 9 of 18, median gain 7%
• The dot-com-era drops of 2000-2002, September 2008 and July 2014 each left the stock 29% to 39% lower six months on

Monday's two-session gain of 25.8% is also rare — AMD had done it 15 times since 2000, most recently Oct. 7, 2025. Big drops are usually followed by big recoveries, and when they're not, losses run for months. The record says nothing about which kind Thursday was.

What's the tax bill if he sells?

Selling all 1,000 shares at $508.58 realizes a long-term gain of $452,640. With the IRA withdrawal and 85% of Social Security taxable, 2026 AGI hits $563,640. Under 2026 brackets: $21,750 of the gain falls in the 0% capital gains bracket, $430,890 is taxed at 15% for $64,634, and the 3.8% net investment income tax (a levy on investment income above a threshold) adds $11,918. Total federal tax: $77,980, or 17.2% of the gain, leaving $430,600 after tax. Two years later, Medicare Part B premiums would run $649.20 a month each instead of $202.90 — a $10,711 annual surcharge.

Alternatives:

• Sell 530 shares (back to 10% of the portfolio): realizes $239,899, federal tax $37,985 including $3,834 of NIIT, Part B surcharge $7,790
• Sell 265 shares now, 265 in January: realizes $119,950 per year, $15,849 federal tax each year, zero NIIT — total $31,699, or $6,286 less than one sale, with a $1,949 annual surcharge

The plan has weaknesses. The 2027 brackets will be wider than modeled. Medicare looks back two years, so a 2026 sale sets 2028 premiums. None of this counts state tax. And the stock could keep going — a holder who sold at $404 on Thursday missed $104,180 of recovery in two sessions.

The bottom line: Monday gave this holder $59,540 and the market's agreement with Su, for a day. It also left 21% of his retirement in one stock that has moved 17% in a session twice this year. The split sale takes the position back to 10%, keeps NIIT at zero and leaves 470 shares to ride toward $600 if Oppenheimer is right.