Nvidia faces a $109.2 billion test after Huang’s departure

By Priya Raman

Nvidia Corporation (BATS:NVDA) faces a $109.2 billion revenue test on Tuesday, November 17, after shares fell around 5% on Thursday following Jensen Huang’s resignation with immediate effect. The reported figures cover a period when Huang still ran the company, and they therefore cannot, on the evidence provided, settle how Nvidia operates after his departure.

BlackBull_Markets asked: “Will Nvidia still be this cheap after next week’s earnings?” The same TradingView commentary stated: “Nvidia, now has to show what it can do without Jensen Huang.” The source offers no earnings-per-share estimate (profit attributable to each common share), margin forecast, valuation multiple, succession plan, or reason for the resignation. “Cheap” therefore remains an assertion rather than a measured valuation conclusion.

What does Huang’s departure change?

Huang’s exit was followed by an approximately 5% fall in Nvidia shares during Thursday’s trading. The stock is heading for its sixth consecutive weekly decline. Completion of that run would produce its longest losing streak since 2012.

The revenue forecast describes the period Huang led, not a demonstrated post-departure operating model. The source does not say how much of the reported period, if any, falls after the resignation. Nor does it identify who assumes responsibility, whether operations continue under the current structure, or what strategic changes could follow. That leaves investors judging a former operating period while seeking evidence that the organization can function under a leadership arrangement or succession model the source does not describe.

What do analysts expect?

Analysts forecast roughly $109.2 billion in revenue (the value of sales recognized during the reporting period) for the Tuesday, November 17, report. The figure establishes scale for the period. It does not specify earnings per share, profitability, cash generation, segment performance, or forward guidance.

BlackBull_Markets described Wall Street as divided. Its survey of rating and target changes supports that description, although the firms do not form a uniform consensus.

• Bernstein downgraded Nvidia to Market Perform (a rating indicating expected performance broadly in line with the market). It also halved its price target (an analyst estimate of a share-price objective) from $400 to $200.
• Oppenheimer downgraded Nvidia to Perform, a rating generally indicating performance broadly in line with peers, and removed its price target.
• Wells Fargo maintained Overweight (a positive rating indicating expected outperformance) but cut its target from $315 to $300.
• Citi maintained Buy and reduced its target from $285 to $225.
• Bank of America maintained Buy and cut its target from $350 to $280.
• Morgan Stanley removed Nvidia from its top-pick list (its highest-conviction recommendations) but kept the Overweight rating and $300 target.

Among the firms retaining targets, Bernstein made the largest reduction: $200, compared with $60 at Citi, $70 at Bank of America and $15 at Wells Fargo. Oppenheimer supplied no new valuation marker. Morgan Stanley left its target unchanged while removing the stock from the favored list. This mix signals lower price objectives alongside continued positive ratings at several banks.

Can strong earnings restore confidence?

The source asks whether strong earnings can restore confidence in the dip. It defines the quantitative hurdle only as roughly $109.2 billion in revenue. A result above that figure would beat the cited aggregate forecast; a result at it would meet it, and a lower result would miss. A revenue beat would not, by itself, answer the leadership question because the reported period includes time when Huang led, while the source provides no measure of post-departure operations.

Nor does the source establish that Nvidia is “cheap” by any stated measure. It provides no price-to-earnings ratio, enterprise-value comparison, free-cash-flow yield, or peer benchmark. Those omissions do not make the stock expensive, but they prevent a valuation verdict from the material supplied and leave the premise of cheapness untested. That distinction matters after a 5% fall and a sixth-week decline sequence, because a lower share price does not by itself establish a lower valuation.

The cited numbers support a narrow conclusion. Analysts forecast $109.2 billion in revenue for the reporting period. The stock heads toward its sixth straight weekly decline, which would be its longest losing streak since 2012. Several price targets have fallen, alongside two downgrades and Oppenheimer’s removal of its target. Strong reported revenue may resolve the numerical question for Huang’s operating period. It will not establish, on this evidence, how Nvidia performs after his departure.