Marvell Stock Needs a 94.9% Gain to Reach $300 by 2029

By Marcus Bennett

Marvell Technology (NASDAQ: MRVL) shares traded at $153.93 in afternoon trading, up 81% year to date despite a 6% drop from the prior close session. Reaching $300 by 2029 would require another 94.9% gain.

The target sits below two established markers: Marvell's $329.73 52-week high and its $310.94 average analyst price target, even as a broad semiconductor selloff hit the sector. Technology was the market's weakest sector during the selloff, while the Nasdaq 100 fell 2% and Nvidia kept sliding.

What powered Marvell's 81% gain?

Fiscal 2029 is the year management has identified for custom AI silicon to scale the most. On August 27, Marvell reported Q2 FY2027 results. Revenue reached $2.739 billion, up 36.5% year over year. Data center sales rose 46% to $2.17 billion, accounting for 79% of total revenue. Adjusted EPS reached $0.94, exceeding the $0.93 estimate.

Management raised fiscal 2028 revenue guidance to approximately $18 billion from $16.5 billion. It expects the custom business to more than double in fiscal 2028 and accelerate significantly in fiscal 2029. That puts custom silicon at the center of the stock's $300 case.

Marvell also expanded its custom silicon partnership with Google, an Alphabet unit. The deal includes a warrant that allows Google to acquire up to 7% of Marvell's shares, tied to revenue milestones.

CEO Matt Murphy said most of the Google work was already reflected in next year's outlook. He added: “the big impact would be in 2029 and beyond.” That timing makes fiscal 2029 the central test for the stock, because much of the expected custom-chip contribution has yet to appear in reported revenue and orders.

How Broadcom and AMD compare

Broadcom shares were up just 0.1% year to date at $344.39. Its AI semiconductor revenue rose 221% to $16.7 billion in Q3 FY2026, reported September 2. AMD shares rose 144% to $522.93, giving AMD the larger year-to-date gain. Both were trading sharply lower during the chip selloff, so neither offered Marvell any shelter.

The three companies also sell different mixes: Marvell is a fabless designer focused on data center connectivity, while Broadcom adds infrastructure software and AMD markets its own processors and accelerators.

Marvell's portfolio includes optical digital signal processors and Ethernet switches, plus custom chips built to each hyperscaler's design. Broadcom pairs custom accelerators and networking with infrastructure software. AMD sells Instinct AI accelerators and EPYC server processors, increasingly bundled into Helios racks.

Marvell therefore relies more heavily on custom silicon and lacks Broadcom's software mix or AMD's internally branded platform.

What does $300 by 2029 require?

Wall Street support anchors the bull case. Marvell carries 8 Strong Buy ratings, 35 Buy ratings and 4 Hold ratings. A forward price-to-earnings ratio of 21 times can be defended if the company delivers its growth outlook.

Murphy said that, in fiscal 2029, “on the custom side, these numbers would be a lot larger than anybody has been modeling so far.” That comment puts more weight on fiscal 2029, but it remains a scenario until orders appear in reported results.

The bear case rests on disclosed operating risks. Marvell flags customer concentration, dependence on the data center market, trade restrictions affecting Chinese customers and the risk that customers build chips in-house.

Broadcom's competitive position adds pressure. Broadcom CEO Hock Tan said on September 2 that its custom chip capabilities create barriers competitors would struggle to cross.

Any one of these factors could restrain revenue growth, while a longer sector selloff could pressure the shares even if Marvell books strong custom AI orders.

Strong custom AI chip bookings could support $300, while slower orders or greater hyperscaler insourcing could keep the stock well short of that level.

A recovery in chip sentiment would let Marvell's fundamentals drive the shares again, but sentiment and operating execution remain separate tests.

Traders can also watch for an easing in the semiconductor selloff that has hit Marvell, Broadcom and AMD alike.

For investors, the practical answer is to treat $300 as a conditional scenario rather than a forecast. Watch fiscal 2028 bookings and fiscal 2029 revenue conversion, not only the analyst price target. That supports a cautious approach until the chip selloff ends and Marvell shows its custom business is accelerating on schedule.