Chip Stocks Peak Every Two Years, Borgeat's Chart Shows — and 2026 Fits

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has topped out roughly every two years — 2020, 2022, 2024 — and analyst Thierry Borgeat says his weekly chart puts 2026 next in line. He posted the chart on X on November 13, 2026, with past cycle tops circled, and opened with a direct read for practitioners: "Zoom out, and the panic starts to look familiar."

His follow-up was blunter. "Look for the little ovals. 2020. 2022. 2024. 2026. Roughly every two years, semiconductors climb into a cycle top, the party gets too loud, and the index falls."

The SOX tracks the largest U.S.-listed chip designers, manufacturers, and equipment makers. The mechanics behind the cycle are old news to anyone who's traded the sector: shortages push customers to double-order, chipmakers lift capital spending, and once inventory piles up, buyers pause until they work through it. Stock prices usually peak before earnings do, which is why tops show up while results still look great.

How hard have the leaders already fallen?

The past month tracks the first half of Borgeat's script almost exactly:

• NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA): down 28.86%
• Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT): down 21%
• Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU): down 19.53%
• AMD (NASDAQ:AMD): down 12.32%
• Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM): down 10.74%
• Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO): down 3.04%, the group's best hold-up

That slide included the second-worst day on record for chip stocks. A sharp bounce followed — AMD gained 31.29% in a week — before Friday's session reversed part of it, with AMD off 9.29% and Micron down 3.95% intraday.

What backs the two-year pattern?

Cycle tops usually surface first in memory, and Micron's numbers are extreme by any frame. Non-GAAP gross margin hit 87.0% in fiscal Q4 2026, nearly double the 45.7% a year earlier, on revenue up 379.3% year over year. Yet the stock trades at just 11 times trailing earnings and 4 times forward. Memory names carry multiples that low only when the market doubts peak profits will last. Micron's CFO, Mark Murphy, conceded on the call that "eventually price increases would moderate."

Other late-cycle tells are stacking up:

• AMD's inventory rose to $11.46 billion, up 35% sequentially
• DRAM's share of Applied Materials' Semiconductor Systems revenue climbed to 33% from 28%, a sign memory makers are spending heavily on capacity
• Broadcom now flags "cyclicality in the semiconductor industry undergoing profound change due to AI" as a risk

Why could this cycle run longer?

The bull case rests on contracts and supply limits, not sentiment. Micron says more than 75% of fiscal 2027 shipments are already committed, with "no line of sight to when supply and demand balance." Broadcom guided fiscal Q4 AI semiconductor revenue to $21.7 billion, up 236% year over year. AMD CEO Lisa Su was categorical: "Demand is higher than supply."

Add TSMC's October revenue, up 59.7% year over year, and NVIDIA's fiscal Q3 2027 revenue forecast of $108.0 billion ± 2%, and you can see why contracted order books raise the bar for the fundamental downturn that normally follows a price top.

What should holders track now?

Four data points will settle the argument:

• Memory pricing: Micron said HBM pricing increased significantly for calendar 2027. Price cuts would be the clearest top signal.
• Inventory conversion: AMD needs its $11.46 billion inventory to convert into revenue near its Q4 guide of about $17 billion ± 3%.
• Equipment demand: Applied Materials guided fiscal Q1 2027 revenue to $11.10B ± $500M. A cut would point to capex digestion.
• TSMC monthly sales: the fastest public read on AI chip demand. A string of sequential declines would validate Borgeat's ovals.

If all four hold, the latest drop looks like a valuation correction inside an expansion that keeps running. If two or more crack, the two-year cycle is repeating — and the harder question is when to step aside.